The Governor’s Race is Far from Over
Steve Adubato, Ph.D.

Some say that the governor’s race is a done deal. Not so fast. There are some interesting and perplexing trends and circumstances that will decide exactly who is going to lead our state. Let’s consider some of them.

--Republican Doug Forrester better figure out fast how to get out from under the avalanche of negative public opinion directed at President George Bush in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The president’s popularity nationally is at an all time low and in New Jersey, it’s even worse. Even though Bush recently said he was “responsible” for the failure of the feds in the aftermath of Katrina, it may be too little too late. Voters are peeved and Republicans like Forrester who are running for high profile office are taking the brunt of it.

--Forrester has said the feds screwed up and recently told a group of New Jersey black ministers that those who are poor and black in New Orleans are disproportionately affected. I’m not sure if that’s enough. Forrester has to go for broke and really blast the administration on this one, even though it’s risky. He needs to be as forceful on this issue and distancing himself from the president as he is about fighting what he calls the “culture of corruption” in New Jersey’s state government. But Forrester is in a pickle. He still wants to bring in big Republican names to campaign for him and raise money against Democrat US Senator Jon Corzine. To do that, he may need the stamp of approval from the Bush White House. But at this point, Forrester needs New Jersey voters more, particularly independents and undecideds. Big name Republican honchos aren’t going to get that done. A clean Forrester break from the White House may seem unlikely, but it’s Doug Forrester’s best bet.

--In spite of recent polls showing Corzine running 20 points ahead of Forrester, this race is not over. The Star-Ledger/Eagleton Rutgers poll shows that 42% of respondents who offered a candidate preference said they might change their minds before November 8. If Jon Corzine makes a huge gaff on the campaign trail, says something incredibly stupid or something really embarrassing comes out about his past (be it fair game or not) this race could turn around.

--But here’s the rub. New Jersey voters appear to be somewhat immune or desensitized to supposedly “shocking” revelations about political figures. That same Star-Ledger/Eagleton Rutgers poll showed that most voters couldn’t care less that Jon Corzine loaned his former girlfriend and state worker union leader Carla Katz $470,000 (which he forgave). Most voters apparently felt it was Corzine’s personal and private business. So if anything is going to hurt Corzine, it’s going to have to be something about his public record that voters find distasteful and damaging. The Forrester folks better come up with something fast.

--Let’s talk about taxes. Both candidates say they will reduce property taxes, but Forrester has a better slogan when he refers to “30 and 3.” He recently explained to me in an interview how he would reduce property taxes 30 percent over 3 years by cutting state government waste, fraud and abuse. I’m not convinced he can do it, because I think the property tax issue is a lot more complicated than that and ultimately will require increasing some other tax, such as the income tax, in order to pay the state government contributions to public schools. Nonetheless, if Forrester can convince enough voters in his TV spots and in upcoming debates that he is the one to cut your property taxes, he might have a shot.

--Finally, the decision to add two non major party candidates to the Forrester/Corzine debate is something that legally had to be done, but will do nothing to help voters make the best decision possible between the two major party candidates. It will only distract and confuse and take valuable time away from Forrester and Corzine engaging each other and citizens of the state. The FCC refers to the inclusion of these other candidates as “equal time.” Technically they are right, but practically some might see it as “wasted time.” Either way, check your local listing for these upcoming televised forums.

(Full disclosure. This fall, Emmy Award-winning anchor Steve Adubato will moderate a special election series entitled “Democracy Works: New Jersey at a Crossroads” that can be seen on Thirteen/WNET New York, as well as on NJN-Public Television, CN8-The Comcast Network and Cablevision. In the series, Adubato will conduct one-on-one interviews with Corzine and Forrester, as well as in-depth citizen focus groups with each candidate.

Steve Adubato, Ph.D. is a commentator, lecturer and former state legislator. Dr. Adubato is also an Emmy Award-winning television anchor and syndicated columnist.
He can be reached by fax (973) 509-1659 or e-mail him at sadubato@aol.com.

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